Are there fewer thunderstorms now compared to 30 years ago?

Every year, storms wreak havoc, sometimes covering several thousand hectares, especially from hail. Explore the mysteries behind these powerful weather events.

Each year, thousands of lightning flashes occur, often in conjunction with severe storms that damage crops, especially through hailstorms and mudslides caused by heavy rainfall. Lightning poses fire risks to agricultural sheds, fields, and nearby forests. Thunderstorms, like snow, have their specific season and should always be treated seriously, regardless of weather alerts.

How are thunderstorms formed?

A study by the Met Office reveals that thunderstorms are most common in summer, while winter sees the fewest. This is unsurprising, as thunderstorms thrive on the temperature difference between the ground and the atmosphere. The larger the temperature difference, the higher the risk of thunderstorms. These storms can be especially intense when temperature differences are significant.

This study shows that the average number of thunderstorms per year in our country has decreased between 1989 and 2019. However, specialists note that thunderstorm cells have increased in the north of the UK while decreasing in the south. In summary, the UK is less likely to experience thunderstorms today than it was 30 years ago. Experts suggest this reduction could be linked to decadal atmospheric oscillations.

Climate change and thunderstorms: what can be said?

There is no clear consensus on how thunderstorms will evolve in a warming climate. Will their frequency increase? The scientific community remains divided. What is more concerning is the potential increase in storm intensity. Future storms are likely to be wetter and may bring more severe hail. Additionally, a 2014 scientific study suggests that the frequency of lightning could increase by 12% for every degree rise in global temperature.

Have there been any notable storm events in recent years?

Not long ago, we witnessed the passage of Storm Ciaran, which brought gusts exceeding 180 km/h in France, particularly between Brittany and Normandy. As this intense winter storm swept through, a violent line of thunderstorms caused significant damage on the Channel Islands. Jersey was hit hardest, experiencing large hailstones, intense rain, and violent wind gusts. A confirmed tornado on the island caused severe damage in several areas. This scenario serves as a reminder that the most powerful storms can occur outside the summer months.