The winter weather that ended at the end of February is giving way to spring. Early indications are for a period 3 months warmer than normal, particularly over a large part of the south of the UK.

Temperatures are set to remain mild. At least, that's what the seasonal forecasts predict between 1 March and the end of May 2025. For the UK as a whole, the next three months will be on average between +0.5 and 1°C warmer than normal, according to the European CEP/ECMWF forecasting model.

Differences in rainfall

Rainfall is expected to be below normal over a wide area over the next three months. On average, the rainfall surplus will only affect the north of the British Isles, mainly Scotland. The opposite is true down south, mainly in England. The rainfall deficit is expected to be greater in the centre of the country.

Seasonal forecasts to be treated with caution

It is important to remember that these are only broad trends, probabilities and not precise forecasts. It's also worth remembering that seasonal forecasts are more reliable for temperature than for precipitation. It should also be remembered that a seasonal forecast is an average of the expected weather (temperatures, humidity), and that it should not hide major disparities from one area to another compared with seasonal forecasts.