Despite encountering a few cold spells accompanied by snow and ice this winter, the UK has enjoyed relatively mild weather since 1 January. Spring has been characterised by mild temperatures, albeit with frequent rainfall. What lies ahead for this summer?
As is the case every year, 1 June marks the start of the summer weather season. Unsurprisingly, the next few months are once again likely to be warmer than normal, according to the latest seasonal forecasts from Copernicus, the European climate monitoring programme. On average, including the 3 months of summer weather (June, July and August), temperatures are expected to be above seasonal normals across the UK, including in the north in Scotland. There's a significant likelihood of above-average temperatures across the East of England and Scotland in the upcoming weeks.
When it comes to precipitation, the weather models appear less decisive. For the United Kingdom, no predominant scenario is emerging across three-quarters of our territory. However, this is less applicable to the North, particularly Scotland, where there's a possibility of above-average rainfall during the summer season.
It's important to remember that the maps generated above represent probabilities, a possibility of warmer weather over our country and visibly wetter than normal weather in Scotland this summer. It is also essential to say that this is not a detailed forecast and that these probabilities ‘only’ represent an average of expected temperatures and humidity compared with our seasonal normals. Put more succinctly, July could bring very wet weather, while August might be exceptionally dry. Or vice versa...
Predictably, the initial months of the year in the UK have been characterised by excessive warmth and precipitation. This conclusion is drawn by comparing climate norms from the 1991-2020 period with the observed values month by month since the year's onset. While meteorological disparities persist between regions, the overarching trend showcases consistently mild temperatures and exceedingly wet weather. February, for instance, experienced exceptional warmth across various locales, surpassing seasonal norms by over 2°C in places like Wattisham, Milford Haven, Glasgow, and Belfast...
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After an exceptionally mild May, especially in the northern British Isles, the initial climate forecast indicates that spring 2024 (March-April-May) will be a historic season. With heavy rain and mild temperatures, discover our full report. The hottest spring recorded The Sencrop stations recorded temperatures above seasonal norms in recent weeks.
Every year, storms wreak havoc, sometimes covering several thousand hectares, especially from hail. Explore the mysteries behind these powerful weather events. Each year, thousands of lightning flashes occur, often in conjunction with severe storms that damage crops, especially through hailstorms and mudslides caused by heavy rainfall. Lightning poses fire risks
Every weather forecast is based on a forecasting model. The names of these models may not mean anything to you, but you're probably familiar with the platforms that use them: BBC Weather, The Met Office, Weather Spark, AccuWeather, UK Weather... But how do you know which weather model