What's the weather forecast for summer 2024?

What's the weather forecast for summer 2024?

Despite encountering a few cold spells accompanied by snow and ice this winter, the UK has enjoyed relatively mild weather since 1 January. Spring has been characterised by mild temperatures, albeit with frequent rainfall. What lies ahead for this summer?

A warmer than normal summer?

As is the case every year, 1 June marks the start of the summer weather season. Unsurprisingly, the next few months are once again likely to be warmer than normal, according to the latest seasonal forecasts from Copernicus, the European climate monitoring programme. On average, including the 3 months of summer weather (June, July and August), temperatures are expected to be above seasonal normals across the UK, including in the north in Scotland. There's a significant likelihood of above-average temperatures across the East of England and Scotland in the upcoming weeks.

Legend: likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures © COPERNICUS

What rainfall is expected?

When it comes to precipitation, the weather models appear less decisive. For the United Kingdom, no predominant scenario is emerging across three-quarters of our territory. However, this is less applicable to the North, particularly Scotland, where there's a possibility of above-average rainfall during the summer season.

Legend: probability of less wet than normal weather © COPERNICUS

It's important to remember that the maps generated above represent probabilities, a possibility of warmer weather over our country and visibly wetter than normal weather in Scotland this summer. It is also essential to say that this is not a detailed forecast and that these probabilities ‘only’ represent an average of expected temperatures and humidity compared with our seasonal normals. Put more succinctly, July could bring very wet weather, while August might be exceptionally dry. Or vice versa...

Focus on the first few months of the year in the UK

Predictably, the initial months of the year in the UK have been characterised by excessive warmth and precipitation. This conclusion is drawn by comparing climate norms from the 1991-2020 period with the observed values month by month since the year's onset. While meteorological disparities persist between regions, the overarching trend showcases consistently mild temperatures and exceedingly wet weather. February, for instance, experienced exceptional warmth across various locales, surpassing seasonal norms by over 2°C in places like Wattisham, Milford Haven, Glasgow, and Belfast...

Legend: average temperatures in the UK from 1 January to 20 May 2024 © Sencrop
Legend: rainfall in the United Kingdom from 1 January to 20 May 2024 © Sencrop

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